The Man Predicts damn the man!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
900 PM PDT THU APR 6 2006
.DISCUSSION...THE DISTRICT ENJOYED A RARE PLEASANT DAY TDA WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH ALL THE
COLD...WET WX SINCE THE START OF MARCH ITS HARD TO REALIZE THAT TDA
WAS REALLY JUST A TYPICAL APRIL DAY HEREABOUTS...AT LEAST IN MOST
YEARS. IN AN AVERAGE APRIL AT LEAST HALF THE DAYS IN THE MONTH ARE
THIS NICE...IF NOT MORE.
NOT THIS YEAR. TDA WILL PROBABLY WIND UP BEING THE BEST DAY OF THE
FIRST 12-14 DAYS OF APRIL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING
OFFSHORE WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 42/135 AND AN ASSOCIATED
TROF EXTENDING S ALMOST TO LAT 30. THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
THRU SAT AND WILL SEND SHOTS OF ENERGY INTO OUR DISTRICT FROM THE SW.
THE FIRST ONE...CURRENTLY SWINGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF...WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI PM. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS
WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT JET MOVING INTO
THE SFO BAY AREA BY LATE FRI AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
PROBABLY A FEW TSTMS FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT FRI PM. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DELAYS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TIL FRI EVE AND THIS MAY HAVE
TO BE MOVED UP TO FRI AFTN...WILL LET THE MID SHIFT MAKE THE CALL
AFTER LOOKING AT ALL THE NEW MODELS BUT THE NEW ETA...USUALLY SLOWER
THAN THE GFS AND EURO...PERSISTS IN BRINGING RAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
N BAY BY FRI AFTN.
THE FIRST SHOT WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT BUT THE
DISTRICT WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT SO SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THRU SAT. MORE VORTLOBES WILL SWING ONSHORE SAT
NIGHT/SUN TO MAINTAIN A SHOWER CHANCE. BY SUN AFTN THE PARENT UPPER
LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE ASHORE AND WE COULD SEE A DECENT DAY ON MON...
BUT THEN A NEW STRONG...COLD UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SWEEP DOWN
FROM THE GULF OF AK AND BRING US SOME SERIOUS WX NEXT TUE/WED.
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